PLAN B
by SEYMOUR M. HERSH
As June 30th approaches, Israel looks to the Kurds.
Issue of 2004-06-28
Posted 2004-06-21
In July, 2003, two months after President Bush declared victory in Iraq,
the war, far from winding down, reached a critical point. Israel, which
had been among the war’s most enthusiastic supporters, began warning the
Administration that the American-led occupation would face a heightened
insurgency—a campaign of bombings and assassinations—later that summer.
Israeli intelligence assets in Iraq were reporting that the insurgents
had the support of Iranian intelligence operatives and other foreign
fighters, who were crossing the unprotected border between Iran and Iraq
at will. The Israelis urged the United States to seal the
nine-hundred-mile-long border, at whatever cost.
The border stayed open, however. “The Administration wasn’t ignoring the
Israeli intelligence about Iran,” Patrick Clawson, who is the deputy
director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and has close
ties to the White House, explained. “There’s no question that we took no
steps last summer to close the border, but our attitude was that it was
more useful for Iraqis to have contacts with ordinary Iranians coming
across the border, and thousands were coming across every day—for
instance, to make pilgrimages.” He added, “The questions we confronted
were ‘Is the trade-off worth it? Do we want to isolate the Iraqis?’ Our
answer was that as long as the Iranians were not picking up guns and
shooting at us, it was worth the price.”
Clawson said, “The Israelis disagreed quite vigorously with us last
summer. Their concern was very straightforward—that the Iranians would
create social and charity organizations in Iraq and use them to recruit
people who would engage in armed attacks against Americans.”
The warnings of increased violence proved accurate. By early August, the
insurgency against the occupation had exploded, with bombings in
Baghdad, at the Jordanian Embassy and the United Nations headquarters,
that killed forty-two people. A former Israeli intelligence officer said
that Israel’s leadership had concluded by then that the United States
was unwilling to confront Iran; in terms of salvaging the situation in
Iraq, he said, “it doesn’t add up. It’s over. Not militarily—the United
States cannot be defeated militarily in Iraq—but politically.”
Flynt Leverett, a former C.I.A. analyst who until last year served on
the National Security Council and is now a fellow at the Saban Center
for Middle East Policy, told me that late last summer “the
Administration had a chance to turn it around after it was clear that
‘Mission Accomplished’”—a reference to Bush’s May speech—“was premature.
The Bush people could have gone to their allies and got more boots on
the ground. But the neocons were dug in—‘We’re doing this on our own.’”
Leverett went on, “The President was only belatedly coming to the
understanding that he had to either make a strategic change or, if he
was going to insist on unilateral control, get tougher and find the
actual insurgency.” The Administration then decided, Leverett said, to
“deploy the Guantánamo model in Iraq”—to put aside its rules of
interrogation. That decision failed to stop the insurgency and
eventually led to the scandal at the Abu Ghraib prison.
In early November, the President received a grim assessment from the
C.I.A.’s station chief in Baghdad, who filed a special field appraisal,
known internally as an Aardwolf, warning that the security situation in
Iraq was nearing collapse. The document, as described by Knight-Ridder,
said that “none of the postwar Iraqi political institutions and leaders
have shown an ability to govern the country” or to hold elections and
draft a constitution.
A few days later, the Administration, rattled by the violence and the
new intelligence, finally attempted to change its go-it-alone policy,
and set June 30th as the date for the handover of sovereignty to an
interim government, which would allow it to bring the United Nations
into the process. “November was one year before the Presidential
election,” a U.N. consultant who worked on Iraqi issues told me. “They
panicked and decided to share the blame with the U.N. and the Iraqis.”
A former Administration official who had supported the war completed a
discouraging tour of Iraq late last fall. He visited Tel Aviv afterward
and found that the Israelis he met with were equally discouraged. As
they saw it, their warnings and advice had been ignored, and the
American war against the insurgency was continuing to founder. “I spent
hours talking to the senior members of the Israeli political and
intelligence community,” the former official recalled. “Their concern
was ‘You’re not going to get it right in Iraq, and shouldn’t we be
planning for the worst-case scenario and how to deal with it?’”
Ehud Barak, the former Israeli Prime Minister, who supported the Bush
Administration’s invasion of Iraq, took it upon himself at this point to
privately warn Vice-President Dick Cheney that America had lost in Iraq;
according to an American close to Barak, he said that Israel “had
learned that there’s no way to win an occupation.” The only issue, Barak
told Cheney, “was choosing the size of your humiliation.” Cheney did not
respond to Barak’s assessment. (Cheney’s office declined to comment.)
In a series of interviews in Europe, the Middle East, and the United
States, officials told me that by the end of last year Israel had
concluded that the Bush Administration would not be able to bring
stability or democracy to Iraq, and that Israel needed other options.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s government decided, I was told, to
minimize the damage that the war was causing to Israel’s strategic
position by expanding its long-standing relationship with Iraq’s Kurds
and establishing a significant presence on the ground in the
semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan. Several officials depicted Sharon’s
decision, which involves a heavy financial commitment, as a potentially
reckless move that could create even more chaos and violence as the
insurgency in Iraq continues to grow.
Israeli intelligence and military operatives are now quietly at work in
Kurdistan, providing training for Kurdish commando units and, most
important in Israel’s view, running covert operations inside Kurdish
areas of Iran and Syria. Israel feels particularly threatened by Iran,
whose position in the region has been strengthened by the war. The
Israeli operatives include members of the Mossad, Israel’s clandestine
foreign-intelligence service, who work undercover in Kurdistan as
businessmen and, in some cases, do not carry Israeli passports.
Asked to comment, Mark Regev, the spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in
Washington, said, “The story is simply untrue and the relevant
governments know it’s untrue.” Kurdish officials declined to comment, as
did a spokesman for the State Department.
However, a senior C.I.A. official acknowledged in an interview last week
that the Israelis were indeed operating in Kurdistan. He told me that
the Israelis felt that they had little choice: “They think they have to
be there.” Asked whether the Israelis had sought approval from
Washington, the official laughed and said, “Do you know anybody who can
tell the Israelis what to do? They’re always going to do what is in
their best interest.” The C.I.A. official added that the Israeli
presence was widely known in the American intelligence community.
The Israeli decision to seek a bigger foothold in
Kurdistan—characterized by the former Israeli intelligence officer as
“Plan B”—has also raised tensions between Israel and Turkey. It has
provoked bitter statements from Turkish politicians and, in a major
regional shift, a new alliance among Iran, Syria, and Turkey, all of
which have significant Kurdish minorities. In early June, Intel Brief, a
privately circulated intelligence newsletter produced by Vincent
Cannistraro, a retired C.I.A. counterterrorism chief, and Philip
Giraldi, who served as the C.I.A.’s deputy chief of base in Istanbul in
the late nineteen-eighties, said:
Turkish sources confidentially report that the Turks are increasingly
concerned by the expanding Israeli presence in Kurdistan and alleged
encouragement of Kurdish ambitions to create an independent state. . . .
The Turks note that the large Israeli intelligence operations in
Northern Iraq incorporate anti-Syrian and anti-Iranian activity,
including support to Iranian and Syrian Kurds who are in opposition to
their respective governments.
In the years since the first Gulf War, Iraq’s Kurds, aided by an
internationally enforced no-fly zone and by a U.N. mandate providing
them with a share of the country’s oil revenues, have managed to achieve
a large measure of independence in three northern Iraqi provinces. As
far as most Kurds are concerned, however, historic “Kurdistan” extends
well beyond Iraq’s borders, encompassing parts of Iran, Syria, and
Turkey. All three countries fear that Kurdistan, despite public pledges
to the contrary, will declare its independence from the interim Iraqi
government if conditions don’t improve after June 30th.
Israeli involvement in Kurdistan is not new. Throughout the
nineteen-sixties and seventies, Israel actively supported a Kurdish
rebellion against Iraq, as part of its strategic policy of seeking
alliances with non-Arabs in the Middle East. In 1975, the Kurds were
betrayed by the United States, when Washington went along with a
decision by the Shah of Iran to stop supporting Kurdish aspirations for
autonomy in Iraq.
Betrayal and violence became the norm in the next two decades. Inside
Iraq, the Kurds were brutally repressed by Saddam Hussein, who used
airpower and chemical weapons against them. In 1984, the Kurdistan
Workers Party, or P.K.K., initiated a campaign of separatist violence in
Turkey that lasted fifteen years; more than thirty thousand people, most
of them Kurds, were killed. The Turkish government ruthlessly crushed
the separatists, and eventually captured the P.K.K.’s leader, Abdullah
Ocalan. Last month, the P.K.K., now known as the Kongra-Gel, announced
that it was ending a five-year unilateral ceasefire and would begin
targeting Turkish citizens once again.
The Iraqi Kurdish leadership was furious when, early this month, the
United States acceded to a U.N. resolution on the restoration of Iraqi
sovereignty that did not affirm the interim constitution that granted
the minority Kurds veto power in any permanent constitution. Kurdish
leaders immediately warned President Bush in a letter that they would
not participate in a new Shiite-controlled government unless they were
assured that their rights under the interim constitution were preserved.
“The people of Kurdistan will no longer accept second-class citizenship
in Iraq,” the letter said.
There are fears that the Kurds will move to seize the city of Kirkuk,
together with the substantial oil reserves in the surrounding region.
Kirkuk is dominated by Arab Iraqis, many of whom were relocated there,
beginning in the nineteen-seventies, as part of Saddam Hussein’s
campaign to “Arabize” the region, but the Kurds consider Kirkuk and its
oil part of their historic homeland. “If Kirkuk is threatened by the
Kurds, the Sunni insurgents will move in there, along with the Turkomen,
and there will be a bloodbath,” an American military expert who is
studying Iraq told me. “And, even if the Kurds do take Kirkuk, they
can’t transport the oil out of the country, since all of the pipelines
run through the Sunni-Arab heartland.”
A top German national-security official said in an interview that “an
independent Kurdistan with sufficient oil would have enormous
consequences for Syria, Iran, and Turkey” and would lead to continuing
instability in the Middle East—no matter what the outcome in Iraq is.
There is also a widespread belief, another senior German official said,
that some elements inside the Bush Administration—he referred
specifically to the faction headed by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul
Wolfowitz—would tolerate an independent Kurdistan. This, the German
argued, would be a mistake. “It would be a new Israel—a pariah state in
the middle of hostile nations.”
A declaration of independence would trigger a Turkish response—and
possibly a war—and also derail what has been an important alliance for
Israel. Turkey and Israel have become strong diplomatic and economic
partners in the past decade. Thousands of Israelis travel to Turkey
every year as tourists. Turkish opposition to the Iraq war has strained
the relationship; still, Turkey remains oriented toward the West and,
despite the victory of an Islamic party in national elections in 2002,
relatively secular. It is now vying for acceptance in the European
Union. In contrast, Turkey and Syria have been at odds for years, at
times coming close to open confrontation, and Turkey and Iran have long
been regional rivals. One area of tension between them is the conflict
between Turkey’s pro-Western stand and Iran’s rigid theocracy. But their
mutual wariness of the Kurds has transcended these divisions.
A European foreign minister, in a conversation last month, said that the
“blowing up” of Israel’s alliance with Turkey would be a major setback
for the region. He went on, “To avoid chaos, you need the neighbors to
work as one common entity.”
The Israelis, however, view the neighborhood, with the exception of
Kurdistan, as hostile. Israel is convinced that Iran is on the verge of
developing nuclear weapons, and that, with Syria’s help, it is planning
to bolster Palestinian terrorism as Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip.
Iraqi Shiite militia leaders like Moqtada al-Sadr, the former American
intelligence official said, are seen by the Israeli leadership as
“stalking horses” for Iran—owing much of their success in defying the
American-led coalition to logistical and communications support and
training provided by Iran. The former intelligence official said, “We
began to see telltale signs of organizational training last summer. But
the White House didn’t want to hear it: ‘We can’t take on another
problem right now. We can’t afford to push Iran to the point where we’ve
got to have a showdown.’”
Last summer, according to a document I obtained, the Bush Administration
directed the Marines to draft a detailed plan, called Operation Stuart,
for the arrest and, if necessary, assassination of Sadr. But the
operation was cancelled, the former intelligence official told me, after
it became clear that Sadr had been “tipped off” about the plan. Seven
months later, after Sadr spent the winter building support for his
movement, the American-led coalition shut down his newspaper, provoking
a crisis that Sadr survived with his status enhanced, thus insuring that
he will play a major, and unwelcome, role in the political and military
machinations after June 30th.
“Israel’s immediate goal after June 30th is to build up the Kurdish
commando units to balance the Shiite militias—especially those which
would be hostile to the kind of order in southern Iraq that Israel would
like to see,” the former senior intelligence official said. “Of course,
if a fanatic Sunni Baathist militia took control—one as hostile to
Israel as Saddam Hussein was—Israel would unleash the Kurds on it, too.”
The Kurdish armed forces, known as the peshmerga, number an estimated
seventy-five thousand troops, a total that far exceeds the known Sunni
and Shiite militias.
The former Israeli intelligence officer acknowledged that since late
last year Israel has been training Kurdish commando units to operate in
the same manner and with the same effectiveness as Israel’s most
secretive commando units, the Mistaravim. The initial goal of the
Israeli assistance to the Kurds, the former officer said, was to allow
them to do what American commando units had been unable to do—penetrate,
gather intelligence on, and then kill off the leadership of the Shiite
and Sunni insurgencies in Iraq. (I was unable to learn whether any such
mission had yet taken place.) “The feeling was that this was a more
effective way to get at the insurgency,” the former officer said. “But
the growing Kurdish-Israeli relationship began upsetting the Turks no
end. Their issue is that the very same Kurdish commandos trained for
Iraq could infiltrate and attack in Turkey.”
The Kurdish-Israeli collaboration inevitably expanded, the Israeli said.
Some Israeli operatives have crossed the border into Iran, accompanied
by Kurdish commandos, to install sensors and other sensitive devices
that primarily target suspected Iranian nuclear facilities. The former
officer said, “Look, Israel has always supported the Kurds in a
Machiavellian way—as balance against Saddam. It’s Realpolitik.” He
added, “By aligning with the Kurds, Israel gains eyes and ears in Iran,
Iraq, and Syria.” He went on, “What Israel was doing with the Kurds was
not so unacceptable in the Bush Administration.”
Senior German officials told me, with alarm, that their intelligence
community also has evidence that Israel is using its new leverage inside
Kurdistan, and within the Kurdish communities in Iran and Syria, for
intelligence and operational purposes. Syrian and Lebanese officials
believe that Israeli intelligence played a role in a series of violent
protests in Syria in mid-March in which Syrian Kurdish dissidents and
Syrian troops clashed, leaving at least thirty people dead. (There are
nearly two million Kurds living in Syria, which has a population of
seventeen million.) Much of the fighting took place in cities along
Syria’s borders with Turkey and Kurdish-controlled Iraq. Michel Samaha,
the Lebanese Minister of Information, told me that while the
disturbances amounted to an uprising by the Kurds against the leadership
of Bashir Assad, the Syrian President, his government had evidence that
Israel was “preparing the Kurds to fight all around Iraq, in Syria,
Turkey, and Iran. They’re being programmed to do commando operations.”
The top German national-security official told me that he believes that
the Bush Administration continually misread Iran. “The Iranians wanted
to keep America tied down in Iraq, and to keep it busy there, but they
didn’t want chaos,” he said. One of the senior German officials told me,
“The critical question is ‘What will the behavior of Iran be if there is
an independent Kurdistan with close ties to Israel?’ Iran does not want
an Israeli land-based aircraft carrier”—that is, a military
stronghold—“on its border.”
Another senior European official said, “The Iranians would do something
positive in the south of Iraq if they get something positive in return,
but Washington won’t do it. The Bush Administration won’t ask the
Iranians for help, and can’t ask the Syrians. Who is going to save the
United States?” He added that, at the start of the American invasion of
Iraq, several top European officials had told their counterparts in
Iran, “You will be the winners in the region.”
Israel is not alone in believing that Iran, despite its protestations,
is secretly hard at work on a nuclear bomb. Early this month, the
International Atomic Energy Agency, which is responsible for monitoring
nuclear proliferation, issued its fifth quarterly report in a row
stating that Iran was continuing to misrepresent its research into
materials that could be used for the production of nuclear weapons. Much
of the concern centers on an underground enrichment facility at Natanz,
two hundred and fifty miles from the Iran-Iraq border, which, during
previous I.A.E.A. inspections, was discovered to contain centrifuges
showing traces of weapons-grade uranium. The huge complex, which is
still under construction, is said to total nearly eight hundred thousand
square feet, and it will be sheltered in a few months by a roof whose
design allows it to be covered with sand. Once the work is completed,
the complex “will be blind to satellites, and the Iranians could add
additional floors underground,” an I.A.E.A. official told me. “The
question is, will the Israelis hit Iran?”
Mohamed ElBaradei, the I.A.E.A. director, has repeatedly stated that his
agency has not “seen concrete proof of a military program, so it’s
premature to make a judgment on that.” David Albright, a former U.N.
weapons inspector who is an expert on nuclear proliferation, buttressed
the I.A.E.A. claim. “The United States has no concrete evidence of a
nuclear-weapons program,” Albright told me. “It’s just an inference.
There’s no smoking gun.” (Last Friday, at a meeting in Vienna, the
I.A.E.A. passed a resolution that, while acknowledging some progress,
complained that Iran had yet to be as open as it should be, and urgently
called upon it to resolve a list of outstanding questions.)
The I.A.E.A. official told me that the I.A.E.A. leadership has been
privately warned by Foreign Ministry officials in Iran that they are
“having a hard time getting information” from the hard-line religious
and military leaders who run the country. “The Iranian Foreign Ministry
tells us, ‘We’re just diplomats, and we don’t know whether we’re getting
the whole story from our own people,’” the official said. He noted that
the Bush Administration has repeatedly advised the I.A.E.A. that there
are secret nuclear facilities in Iran that have not been declared. The
Administration will not say more, apparently worried that the
information could get back to Iran.
Patrick Clawson, of the Institute for Near East Policy, provided another
explanation for the reluctance of the Bush Administration to hand over
specific intelligence. “If we were to identify a site,” he told me,
“it’s conceivable that it could be quickly disassembled and the I.A.E.A.
inspectors would arrive”—international inspections often take weeks to
organize—“and find nothing.” The American intelligence community,
already discredited because of its faulty reporting on Iraqi weapons of
mass destruction, would be criticized anew. “It’s much better,” Clawson
said, “to have the I.A.E.A. figure out on its own that there’s a site
and then find evidence that there had been enriched material there.”
Clawson told me that Israel’s overwhelming national-security concern
must be Iran. Given that a presence in Kurdistan would give Israel a way
to monitor the Iranian nuclear effort, he said, “it would be negligent
for the Israelis not to be there.”
At the moment, the former American senior intelligence official said,
the Israelis’ tie to Kurdistan “would be of greater value than their
growing alliance with Turkey. ‘We love Turkey but got to keep the
pressure on Iran.’” The former Israeli intelligence officer said, “The
Kurds were the last surviving group close to the United States with any
say in Iraq. The only question was how to square it with Turkey.”
There may be no way to square it with Turkey. Over breakfast in Ankara,
a senior Turkish official explained, “Before the war, Israel was active
in Kurdistan, and now it is active again. This is very dangerous for us,
and for them, too. We do not want to see Iraq divided, and we will not
ignore it.” Then, citing a popular Turkish proverb—“We will burn a
blanket to kill a flea”—he said, “We have told the Kurds, ‘We are not
afraid of you, but you should be afraid of us.’” (A Turkish diplomat I
spoke to later was more direct: “We tell our Israeli and Kurdish friends
that Turkey’s good will lies in keeping Iraq together. We will not
support alternative solutions.”)
“If you end up with a divided Iraq, it will bring more blood, tears, and
pain to the Middle East, and you will be blamed,” the senior Turkish
official said. “From Mexico to Russia, everybody will claim that the
United States had a secret agenda in Iraq: you came there to break up
Iraq. If Iraq is divided, America cannot explain this to the world.” The
official compared the situation to the breakup of Yugoslavia, but added,
“In the Balkans, you did not have oil.” He said, “The lesson of
Yugoslavia is that when you give one country independence everybody will
want it.” If that happens, he said, “Kirkuk will be the Sarajevo of
Iraq. If something happens there, it will be impossible to contain the
crisis.”
In Ankara, another senior Turkish official explained that his government
had “openly shared its worries” about the Israeli military activities
inside Kurdistan with the Israeli Foreign Ministry. “They deny the
training and the purchase of property and claim it’s not official but
done by private persons. Obviously, our intelligence community is aware
that it was not so. This policy is not good for America, Iraq, or Israel
and the Jews.”
Turkey’s increasingly emphatic and public complaints about Israel’s
missile attacks on the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip is another
factor in the growing tensions between the allies. On May 26th, Turkey’s
Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, announced at a news conference in Ankara
that the Turkish government was bringing its Ambassador in Israel home
for consultations on how to revive the Middle East peace process. He
also told the Turkish parliament that the government was planning to
strengthen its ties to the Palestinian Authority, and, in conversations
with Middle Eastern diplomats in the past month, he expressed grave
concern about Israel. In one such talk, one diplomat told me, Gul
described Israeli activities, and the possibility of an independent
Kurdistan, as “presenting us with a choice that is not a real
choice—between survival and alliance.”
A third Turkish official told me that the Israelis were “talking to us
in order to appease our concern. They say, ‘We aren’t doing anything in
Kurdistan to undermine your interests. Don’t worry.’” The official
added, “If it goes out publicly what they’ve been doing, it will put
your government and our government in a difficult position. We can
tolerate ‘Kurdistan’ if Iraq is intact, but nobody knows the future—not
even the Americans.”
A former White House official depicted the Administration as
eager—almost desperate—late this spring to install an acceptable new
interim government in Iraq before President Bush’s declared June 30th
deadline for the transfer of sovereignty. The Administration turned to
Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations special envoy, to “put together
something by June 30th—just something that could stand up” through the
Presidential election, the former official said. Brahimi was given the
task of selecting, with Washington’s public approval, the thirty-one
members of Iraq’s interim government. Nevertheless, according to press
reports, the choice of Iyad Allawi as interim Prime Minister was a
disappointment to Brahimi.
The White House has yet to deal with Allawi’s past. His credentials as a
neurologist, and his involvement during the past two decades in
anti-Saddam activities, as the founder of the British-based Iraqi
National Accord, have been widely reported. But his role as a Baath
Party operative while Saddam struggled for control in the
nineteen-sixties and seventies—Saddam became President in 1979—is much
less well known. “Allawi helped Saddam get to power,” an American
intelligence officer told me. “He was a very effective operator and a
true believer.” Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former C.I.A. case officer who
served in the Middle East, added, “Two facts stand out about Allawi.
One, he likes to think of himself as a man of ideas; and, two, his
strongest virtue is that he’s a thug.”
Early this year, one of Allawi’s former medical-school classmates, Dr.
Haifa al-Azawi, published an essay in an Arabic newspaper in London
raising questions about his character and his medical bona fides. She
depicted Allawi as a “big husky man . . . who carried a gun on his belt
and frequently brandished it, terrorizing the medical students.”
Allawi’s medical degree, she wrote, “was conferred upon him by the Baath
party.” Allawi moved to London in 1971, ostensibly to continue his
medical education; there he was in charge of the European operations of
the Baath Party organization and the local activities of the Mukhabarat,
its intelligence agency, until 1975.
“If you’re asking me if Allawi has blood on his hands from his days in
London, the answer is yes, he does,” Vincent Cannistraro, the former
C.I.A. officer, said. “He was a paid Mukhabarat agent for the Iraqis,
and he was involved in dirty stuff.” A cabinet-level Middle East
diplomat, who was rankled by the U.S. indifference to Allawi’s personal
history, told me early this month that Allawi was involved with a
Mukhabarat “hit team” that sought out and killed Baath Party dissenters
throughout Europe. (Allawi’s office did not respond to a request for
comment.) At some point, for reasons that are not clear, Allawi fell
from favor, and the Baathists organized a series of attempts on his
life. The third attempt, by an axe-wielding assassin who broke into his
home near London in 1978, resulted in a year-long hospital stay.
The Saban Center’s Flynt Leverett said of the transfer of sovereignty,
“If it doesn’t work, there is no fallback—nothing.” The former senior
American intelligence official told me, similarly, that “the neocons
still think they can pull the rabbit out of the hat” in Iraq. “What’s
the plan? They say, ‘We don’t need it. Democracy is strong enough. We’ll
work it out.’”
Middle East diplomats and former C.I.A. operatives who now consult in
Baghdad have told me that many wealthy Iraqi businessmen and their
families have deserted Baghdad in recent weeks in anticipation of
continued, and perhaps heightened, suicide attacks and terror bombings
after June 30th. “We’ll see Christians, Shiites, and Sunnis getting
out,” Michel Samaha, the Lebanese Minister of Information, reported.
“What the resistance is doing is targeting the poor people who run the
bureaucracy—those who can’t afford to pay for private guards. A month
ago, friends of mine who are important landowners in Iraq came to
Baghdad to do business. The cost of one day’s security was about twelve
thousand dollars.”
Whitley Bruner, a retired intelligence officer who was a senior member
of the C.I.A.’s task force on Iraq a decade ago, said that the new
interim government in Iraq is urgently seeking ways to provide
affordable security for second-tier officials—the men and women who make
the government work. In early June, two such officials—Kamal Jarrah, an
Education Ministry official, and Bassam Salih Kubba, who was serving as
deputy foreign minister—were assassinated by unidentified gunmen outside
their homes. Neither had hired private guards. Bruner, who returned from
Baghdad earlier this month, said that he was now working to help
organize Iraqi companies that could provide high-quality security that
Iraqis could afford. “It’s going to be a hot summer,” Bruner said. “A
lot of people have decided to get to Lebanon, Jordan, or the Gulf and
wait this one out.”
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