Eilon, July 30, 2006
Hello friends
The catastrophe that befell Kfar Qana this morning is the realization of a worst-case scenario. Although the village has been used as a launch site for an approximate one hundred and fifty rockets, at least according to local sources, the prosecution of this campaign risks further endangerment to innocent civilians and this has to be weighed against dwindling military gains.
As an example, had Israel agreed to the 72 hour temporary cease-fire that was proposed by Jan Egeland, unhindered humanitarian assistance would have reached its destination, and it is likely that civilians, entrapped within a war zone, might have been spirited north into relative safety. Regarding Hezbollah, they may have exploited the ceasefire to consolidate their positions, or they may have melted into the mass flight of refugees fleeing northward.
Assuming that Hezbollah would exploit the ceasefire to replenish its arsenal and reinforce its forces, this would have to be weighed against the quantifiable damage that
it could possibly hope to inflict on Israel or in localized clashes with her troops. If such fighting was to have resumed, we could presume that the area where these battles are waged would be emptied of its inhabitants, thus minimizing risks to the civilian population.
Israel's initial ambitions now appear grandiose and unrealistic. As the fighting has dragged on, the window of opportunity provided by the international community and the United States has dramatically narrowed, and with it, Israel has been forced to reevaluate and reduce her goals.
It is no secret that the type of solution now taking shape involves a multi-national stabilization force that will operate within a 40 kilometer buffer zone; a prisoner exchange, talks on territorial adjustments in the Shaba'a Farm region, and hopefully the implementation of the UN resolution requiring Hezbollah to disarm.
This appears to be the most optimistic outcome attainable under the circumstances. Barring an unforeseen knockout of Hezbollah within the next few days, it seems unlikely that military success on the battlefield can hope to achieve much more.
Love-Barry